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Nest egg = annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate. 4% is the Trinity / Bengen 30-year starting rate, not a 50-year paycheck. Primer: your FIRE number. Guardrails: sequence of returns (the old FIRE-withdrawal URL lands there).
Quick answer: The FIRE number on this page is annual spending divided by the withdrawal rate you type. It also shows the portfolio at 4% and at 3% so you can see how the rate moves the target. 4% is a 30-year study result, not a promise for a longer retirement.
Nest egg
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Trinity (1998) / Bengen (1994) tested a 4% initial withdrawal, inflation-adjusted, 50/50 US stocks/bonds, 30-year window. Early FIRE is a longer window — 3–3.5% is the conservative pair on this page, not a forecast. Social Security and a paid-off house change the spending line; type the spending you will actually write checks for. Guardrails: sequence of returns · tax order: tax-efficient withdrawals · RMD calculator.
What this means for you: a lower withdrawal rate means a larger portfolio for the same spending. The number is not a savings balance you have today. Social Security, a pension, and taxes are not subtracted unless you already removed them from spending.
Annual spending divided by the withdrawal rate. A 4% rate divides by 0.04.
The page treats 4% as the Trinity study's 30-year illustration, not a guarantee. A longer horizon is why the 3% line is on the page.
Use the spending you want covered by the portfolio. A paycheck or Social Security you will still have does not belong in that spending if you are not asking the portfolio to pay it.
Educational, not financial advice. Page updated October 24, 2026 — no tax, limit, or rate figure was changed in this review.